Uncertainty in the estimation of potential evapotranspiration under climate change.

21st century climate change is projected to result in an intensification of the global hydrological cycle, but there is substantial uncertainty in how this will impact freshwater availability. A relatively overlooked aspect of this uncertainty pertains to how different methods of estimating potential evapotranspiration (PET) respond to changing climate. Here we investigate the global response of six different PET methods to a 2 °C rise in global mean temperature. All methods suggest an increase in PET associated with a warming climate. However, differences in PET climate change signal of over 100% are found between methods. Analysis of a precipitation/PET aridity index and regional water surplus indicates that for certain regions and GCMs, choice of PET method can actually determine the direction of projections of future water resources. As such, method dependence of the PET climate change signal is an important source of uncertainty in projections of future freshwater availability.

The water quality of the LOCAR Pang and Lambourn catchments

The water quality of the Pang and Lambourn, tributaries of the River Thames, in south-eastern England, is described in relation to spatial and temporal dimensions. The river waters are supplied mainly from Chalk-fed aquifer sources and are, therefore, of a calcium-bicarbonate type. The major, minor and trace element chemistry of the rivers is controlled by a combination of atmospheric and pollutant inputs from agriculture and sewage sources superimposed on a background water quality signal linked to geological sources. Water quality does not vary greatly over time or space. However. in detail, there are differences in water quality between the Pang and Lambourn and between sites along the Pang and the Lambourn. These differences reflect hydrological processes, water flow pathways and water quality input fluxes. The Pangs pattern of water quality change is more variable than that of the Lambourn. The flow hydrograph also shows both a cyclical and 'uniform pattern' characteristic of aquifer drainage with, superimposed, a series of 'flashier' spiked responses characteristic of karstic systems. The Lambourn, in contrast, shows simpler features without the 'flashier' responses, The results are discussed in relation to the newly developed UK community programme LOCAR dealing with Lowland Catchment Research. A descriptive and box model structure is provided to describe the key features of water quality variations in relation to soil, unsaturated and groundwater flows and storage both away from and close to the river.

Rainfall and runoff water quality of the Pang and Lambourn, tributaries of the River Thames, south-eastern England

The water quality of rainfall and runoff is described for two catchments of two tributaries of the River Thames, the Pang and Lambourn. Rainfall chemistry is variable and concentrations of most determinands decrease with increasing volume of catch probably due to 'wash out' processes. Two rainfall sites have been monitored, one for each catchment. The rainfall site on the Lambourn shows higher chemical concentrations than the one for the Pang which probably reflects higher amounts of local inputs from agricultural activity, Rainfall quality data at a long-term rainfall site on the Pang (UK National Air Quality Archive) shows chemistries similar to that for the Lambourn site. but with some clear differences. Rainfall chemistries show considerable variation on an event-to-event basis. Average water quality concentrations and flow-weighted concentrations as well as fluxes vary across the sites, typically by about 30%. Stream chemistry is much less variable due to the main Source of water coming from aquifer sources of high storage. The relationship between rainfall and runoff chemistry at the catchment outlet is described in terms of the relative proportions of atmospheric and within-catchment sources. Remarkably, in view of the quantity of agricultural and sewage inputs to the streams, the catchments appear to be retaining both P and N.

The Representative Soil Sampling Scheme of England and Wales: a statistical analysis of topsoil nutrient status and pH between 1971 and 2001

The Representative Soil Sampling Scheme of England and Wales has recorded information on the soil of agricultural land in England and Wales since 1969. It is a valuable source of information about the soil in the context of monitoring for sustainable agricultural development. Changes in soil nutrient status and pH were examined over the period 1971-2001. Several methods of statistical analysis were applied to data from the surveys during this period. The main focus here is on the data for 1971, 1981, 1991 and 2001. The results of examining change over time in general show that levels of potassium in the soil have increased, those of magnesium have remained fairly constant, those of phosphorus have declined and pH has changed little. Future sampling needs have been assessed in the context of monitoring, to determine the mean at a given level of confidence and tolerable error and to detect change in the mean over time at these same levels over periods of 5 and 10 years. The results of a non-hierarchical multivariate classification suggest that England and Wales could be stratified to optimize future sampling and analysis. To monitor soil quality and health more generally than for agriculture, more of the country should be sampled and a wider range of properties recorded.

The effect of a large freshwater perturbation on the glacial north Atlantic Ocean using a coupled general circulation model

The commonly held view of the conditions in the North Atlantic at the last glacial maximum, based on the interpretation of proxy records, is of large-scale cooling compared to today, limited deep convection, and extensive sea ice, all associated with a southward displaced and weakened overturning thermohaline circulation (THC) in the North Atlantic. Not all studies support that view; in particular, the "strength of the overturning circulation" is contentious and is a quantity that is difficult to determine even for the present day. Quasi-equilibrium simulations with coupled climate models forced by glacial boundary conditions have produced differing results, as have inferences made from proxy records. Most studies suggest the weaker circulation, some suggest little or no change, and a few suggest a stronger circulation. Here results are presented from a three-dimensional climate model, the Hadley Centre Coupled Model version 3 (HadCM3), of the coupled atmosphere - ocean - sea ice system suggesting, in a qualitative sense, that these diverging views could all have occurred at different times during the last glacial period, with different modes existing at different times. One mode might have been characterized by an active THC associated with moderate temperatures in the North Atlantic and a modest expanse of sea ice. The other mode, perhaps forced by large inputs of meltwater from the continental ice sheets into the northern North Atlantic, might have been characterized by a sluggish THC associated with very cold conditions around the North Atlantic and a large areal cover of sea ice. The authors' model simulation of such a mode, forced by a large input of freshwater, bears several of the characteristics of the Climate: Long-range Investigation, Mapping, and Prediction (CLIMAP) Project's reconstruction of glacial sea surface temperature and sea ice extent.

African climate change: Taking the shorter route

Numerous factors are associated with poverty and underdevelopment in Africa, including climate variability. Rainfall, and climate more generally, are implicated directly in the United Nations “Millennium Development Goals” to eradicate extreme poverty and hunger, and reduce child mortality and incidence of diseases such as malaria by the target date of 2015. But, Africa is not currently on target to meet these goals. We pose a number of questions from a climate science perspective aimed at understanding this background: Is there a common origin to factors that currently constrain climate science? Why is it that in a continent where human activity is so closely linked to interannual rainfall variability has climate science received little of the benefit that saw commercialization driving meteorology in the developed world? What might be suggested as an effective way for the continent to approach future climate variability and change? We make the case that a route to addressing the challenges of climate change in Africa rests with the improved management of climate variability. We start by discussing the constraints on climate science and how they might be overcome. We explain why the optimal management of activities directly influenced by interannual climate variability (which include the development of scientific capacity) has the potential to serve as a forerunner to engagement in the wider issue of climate change. We show this both from the perspective of the climate system and the institutions that engage with climate issues. We end with a thought experiment that tests the benefits of linking climate variability and climate change in the setting of smallholder farmers in Limpopo Province, South Africa.

Impact of coronal mass ejections, interchange reconnection, and disconnection on heliospheric magnetic field strength

An update of Owens et al. (2008) shows that the relationship between the coronal mass ejection (CME) rate and the heliospheric magnetic field strength predicts a field floor of less than 4 nT at 1 AU. This implies that the record low values measured during this solar minimum do not necessarily contradict the idea that open flux is conserved. The results are consistent with the hypothesis that CMEs add flux to the heliosphere and interchange reconnection between open flux and closed CME loops subtracts flux. An existing model embracing this hypothesis, however, overestimates flux during the current minimum, even though the CME rate has been low. The discrepancy calls for reasonable changes in model assumptions.

Overview: oxidant and particle photochemical processes above a south-east Asian tropical rain forest (the OP3 project); introduction, rationale, location, characteristics and tools

In April–July 2008, intensive measurements were made of atmospheric composition and chemistry in Sabah, Malaysia, as part of the "Oxidant and particle photochemical processes above a South-East Asian tropical rainforest" (OP3) project. Fluxes and concentrations of trace gases and particles were made from and above the rainforest canopy at the Bukit Atur Global Atmosphere Watch station and at the nearby Sabahmas oil palm plantation, using both ground-based and airborne measurements. Here, the measurement and modelling strategies used, the characteristics of the sites and an overview of data obtained are described. Composition measurements show that the rainforest site was not significantly impacted by anthropogenic pollution, and this is confirmed by satellite retrievals of NO2 and HCHO. The dominant modulators of atmospheric chemistry at the rainforest site were therefore emissions of BVOCs and soil emissions of reactive nitrogen oxides. At the observed BVOC:NOx volume mixing ratio (~100 pptv/pptv), current chemical models suggest that daytime maximum OH concentrations should be ca. 105 radicals cm−3, but observed OH concentrations were an order of magnitude greater than this. We confirm, therefore, previous measurements that suggest that an unexplained source of OH must exist above tropical rainforest and we continue to interrogate the data to find explanations for this.

Nitrogen management is essential to prevent tropical oil palm plantations from causing ozone pollution

More than half the world's rainforest has been lost to agriculture since the Industrial Revolution. Among the most widespread tropical crops is oil palm (Elaeis guineensis): global production now exceeds 35 million tonnes per year. In Malaysia, for example, 13% of land area is now oil palm plantation, compared with 1% in 1974. There are enormous pressures to increase palm oil production for food, domestic products, and, especially, biofuels. Greater use of palm oil for biofuel production is predicated on the assumption that palm oil is an “environmentally friendly” fuel feedstock. Here we show, using measurements and models, that oil palm plantations in Malaysia directly emit more oxides of nitrogen and volatile organic compounds than rainforest. These compounds lead to the production of ground-level ozone (O3), an air pollutant that damages human health, plants, and materials, reduces crop productivity, and has effects on the Earth's climate. Our measurements show that, at present, O3 concentrations do not differ significantly over rainforest and adjacent oil palm plantation landscapes. However, our model calculations predict that if concentrations of oxides of nitrogen in Borneo are allowed to reach those currently seen over rural North America and Europe, ground-level O3 concentrations will reach 100 parts per billion (109) volume (ppbv) and exceed levels known to be harmful to human health. Our study provides an early warning of the urgent need to develop policies that manage nitrogen emissions if the detrimental effects of palm oil production on air quality and climate are to be avoided.